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New England Patriots vs. New York Giants preview: Predictions, point spread, game plans, matchups and more
The New England Patriots have a quick turnaround this week, taking on the New York Giants on just a four-day layoff.
The Patriots have rolled to a 5-0 start with a pretty weak schedule. This week, they face a Giants team that’s rebuilding, but also playing with a spark behind rookie quarterback Daniel Jones.
Here’s a look at the weather, key matchups and the betting line for Thursday’s game.
ODDS AND POINT SPREADS
Bovada: Patriots -17.5
Vegas Insider: Patriots -17
Westgate: Patriots -17
Over/under: 41.5
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. GIANTS DEFENSE
- Can the running game keep it going?
Sony Michel and the Patriots offensive line have had a slow start to the 2019 season. So far, when the offense has been working, it’s been when the team has gone full Air Brady.
But Sunday’s win over the Redskins was a welcome sign of life for the flagging running attack. After leaning on Washington for most of the game, New England barreled down with Michel running behind undrafted rookie Jakob Johnson to great effect.
If they can keep that up against the Giants, that fares well for the offense as a whole, especially as the receiving corps deals with injuries.
-So, this is the solution at tight end?
The Patriots appeared to be using Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo as a stopgap solution before Ben Watson came back from suspension. Then the team up and released Watson.
Through four games, the duo has caught four passes combined, with most of Izzo’s catches coming when opposing teams have left him wide open.
With Julian Edelman dinged up and Phillip Dorsett dealing with a hamstring injury, the Patriots need to start targeting some other players on offense. Getting any consistent signs of life from the Izzo/LaCosse combo will be key in that.
PATRIOTS DEFENSE VS. GIANTS OFFENSE
- How good is Daniel Jones?
Bill Belichick is 12-0 against rookie quarterbacks at home with the Patriots. Typically, rookies have been eaten alive when going up against his defenses at Gillette Stadium. What’s more, this particular defense is his best in years.
Jones has displayed exceptional arm talent and a penchant for making plays. But on Sunday, the Patriots will serve a monumental test for his ability to read defenses. If New England’s secondary can confound him, then that will really take the air out of New York’s attack.
- Who’s going to play for New York?
Sure, the Giants have wide receiver Golden Tate back from suspension. But other than that, things are looking pretty rough for New York’s backs and receivers.
Star running back Saquon Barkley isn’t going to play, neither are wide receiver Sterling Shephard and tight end Evan Engram. Those three players just so happen to be the three most dangerous players on the Giants offense.
The Patriots defense is crazy deep. The Giants offense? It’s looking pretty shallow.
SPECIAL TEAMS
New York
K: Aldrick Rosas (4-of-5, 11-of-11 on extra points)
P: Riley Dixon (47.6 Y/P)
KR/PR: Corey Balentine (26.3 Y/KR), Golden Tate (17.0 Y/PR)
DVOA rank: 10th
New England
K: Mike Nugent (2-of-2, 3-of-4 on extra points)
P: Jake Bailey (46.4 Y/P)
KR/PR: Brandon Bolden (19.5 Y/KR), Gunner Olszewski (8.6 Y/PR)
DVOA rank: 16th
Breakdown: The Patriots took a big jump in special teams rankings, going from 27th to 16th in the NFL by DVOA. It certainly helped that they got some solid punt returns. It didn’t help that Mike Nugent missed an extra point. However, they could be turning the corner in that department now that he got the jitters of the first kick out of the way.
In the meantime, the Giants got a boost from Tate’s return from suspension, giving them a solid option as a punt returner.
TOP 3 MATCHUPS TO WATCH
1. Stephon Gilmore vs. Golden Tate
With Barkley (and likely Shephard) out Thursday, the Giants will likely be hurting for receivers. That’s not a great development against a team with one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks in Stephon Gilmore.
Jones may wind up looking Tate’s way early and often, given that his other options are guys like Darius Slayton, Cody Latimer and Benny Fowler.
If Gilmore can lock down Tate, Jones may not have many options when he drops back.
2. Patriots pass rushers vs. Nate Solder
Sunday’s game features the return of old friend Nate Solder, who’s in his second season as the Giants’ franchise left tackle. In that time, he’s faced some pretty heavy criticism for uneven play.
Against the Patriots, he’ll likely have to face off against a variety of pass rushers coming from different positions, whether that’s Michael Bennett or old teammates like Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower or Deatrich Wise.
If Solder struggles, it could be a long day for Jones back there.
3. Janoris Jenkins vs. Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon
With Phillip Dorsett hurt and the tight ends a non-factor, Tom Brady will likely be relying pretty heavily on his top two receivers. That means the Giants’ top cornerback, Jenkins, will have Brady looking his way early and often.
Jenkins, a high-priced free agent, hasn’t had a great season. If Gordon or Edelman can get open against him, that could provide a catalyst for the rest of the offense.
PREDICTIONS
Columnist Matt Vautour: New England
Senior producer Nick O'Malley: New England
Sports editor Jim Pignatiello: New England
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